What is strategic foresight or “futures thinking”?

Strategic foresight (often called futures thinking or simply Futures) is a structured way to explore multiple possible futures.

Rather than trying to predict what will happen, it helps organisations prepare for what could happen - by identifying emerging trends, mapping uncertainties, and imagining different scenarios. It’s about shaping the future you want, not just reacting to change.

Isn’t that just speculation?

No. Foresight is evidence-based and systematic. It uses tools like horizon scanning, megatrend analysis, and scenario planning to make sense of signals of change already visible in the present. It draws on research, expert insights, and participatory processes to create actionable insights - not crystal-ball predictions.

Why is foresight important?

Because the world is turbulent, uncertain, novel and ambiguous.Governments, businesses and communities operate in systems shaped by technology, climate change, demographics, and shifting values. Foresight helps leaders build policies, strategies, and organisations that are resilient across multiple possible futures, not just the one they assume today

How does foresight actually work?

A typical foresight process moves through four stages:

1. Mapping – scanning signals and trends shaping the future.

2. Sense-making – exploring implications and developing scenarios.

3. Challenging – testing assumptions and stress-testing current strategies.

4. Catalysing – translating insights into action and preferred futures

Each stage blends research, creativity, and collaboration to expand thinking and support better decisions.

What are the core foresight tools?

Some of the most widely used tools include:

• Horizon Scanning – spotting early signals of change.

• STEEP analysis – exploring Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental, and Political drivers.

• Megatrend Analysis – identifying large-scale, long-term forces shaping the world.

• Scenario Planning – developing multiple, plausible futures.

• Futures Wheel – mapping ripple effects of change.

• Backcasting – working backwards from a preferred future to identify today’s priorities

How is foresight different from strategy?

Strategy often focuses on choosing a path forward within the current system. Foresight expands the frame: it helps you rethink the system itself, explore how it might evolve, and identify leverage points to influence it.

In short: strategy without foresight risks being short-sighted; foresight without strategy risks being ungrounded.

What kinds of questions can foresight help answer?

• What emerging trends could reshape our sector over the next decade?

• What risks are we not seeing because of our assumptions?

• Which policies or investments would still make sense in multiple futures?

• What does a “preferred future” look like - and what would it take to get there?

Who uses foresight?

Foresight is now used by:

• Governments (e.g., Australia, Singapore, New Zealand, Finland)

• Corporates (e.g., Shell, McDonalds, Ikea, Loreal)

• Community and philanthropic organisations

• Educational and research institutions

It’s increasingly seen as essential for long-term resilience, innovation, and national competitiveness.

How do you make sure foresight leads to real action?

Foresight is most powerful when it’s connected to live decisions.That means involving the people who will use the insights - decision-makers, communities, stakeholders - throughout the process, not just at the end. Workshops, co-design, and scenario dialogues help translate “futures thinking” into practical strategies, reforms, and experiments.

Where should I start?

Begin with curiosity. Define a focal question - e.g. “What will my industry look like in 2035?” or “How might climate adaptation reshape local economies?” Then explore tools like STEEP or Horizon Scanning. A foresight consultant can help you design a process that fits your context, time frame and goals.